The Ecommerce Playbook Podcast

Hosted ByTaylor Holiday & Richard Gaffin

2020 transformed the world of ecommerce forever. For the modern DTC brand, the rewards have never been greater. But the waters have also never been choppier, and the way forward has never been more uncertain. So how do you navigate this dangerous new reality? No matter how you do it, you’d better not do it alone. That’s where the Ecommerce Playbook Podcast comes in — join Common Thread Collective’s Taylor Holiday & Richard Gaffin as they bring you guiding insights from across CTC’s portfolio of growing DTC businesses. Whether you need a clear view on the macro issues affecting the world.

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The Ecommerce Playbook | The Modeling System That Powers 30%+ Revenue Growth

June 30, 2026 The Ecommerce Playbook Podcast 00:22:00
The Ecommerce Playbook Podcast
The Ecommerce Playbook Podcast
The Ecommerce Playbook | The Modeling System That Powers 30%+ Revenue Growth
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Most brands forecast from gut feel and ROAS. CTC runs on four interlocked proprietary models that produce a daily P&L forecast with 3.1% accuracy across more than $3 billion in GMV. In Part 2 of the Canon series, Luke Austin breaks down each model, how they connect, and what a Profit Engineer actually does with them

Topics covered:

  • Why a single ROAS number can’t run a business

  • The Spending Power Model — ACoNS curves and what spending power actually tells you

  • The Retention Model — forecasting returning revenue cohort by cohort

  • The Event Effect Model — how to get daily precision without breaking monthly targets

  • The Creative Demand Model (teased — full breakdown in the creative strategy episode)

  • How these four models wire together into a connected forecast system

  • What R-squared below 0.6 signals about your retention data

  • The three optimization points every brand should know: max CM, max revenue, max LTV CM

Key stat: 3.1% forecast accuracy across $3B+ in GMV managed — producing 30%+ revenue growth and 40%+ contribution margin growth.

Show Notes: